“If you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor.”
— Desmond Tutu'Stop cutting the weather service's budget': Fmr. NOAA official slams staff cuts
By Adaptation-Guide | Disaster Files – Lessons from Collapse
July 2025 | Texas, United States
They searched for the missing. The politicians searched for someone to blame.
On July 4, America’s Independence Day, over 100 people lost their lives in a catastrophic flash flood in central Texas.
Among the dead: 27 girls and camp counselors from the Christian summer camp Camp Mystic, many just nine or ten years old.
Swept away in their sleep by a wall of water that surged through the Guadalupe River in the dead of night, they were victims not just of nature — but of human failure, bureaucratic delay, and political cowardice.
This was not a natural disaster. This was a preventable massacre by neglect.
Scene of the Crime: Kerr County, Texas — Known Flash Flood Territory
Everyone knew what this place was: “Flash Flood Alley”, a stretch of the Texas Hill Country infamous for deadly floods.
Experts warned about it for years. Rainstorms roll in from the Gulf of Mexico, dump tropical moisture into narrow valleys, and water rushes downhill with nowhere to go but through homes, camps, and lives.
But despite the well-known risks:
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Kerr County had no flood sirens.
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Emergency warnings were sent after midnight, when many were asleep — and reception was spotty.
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In 2017, local authorities rejected a FEMA-supported proposal to install a warning system.
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In 2018, FEMA denied funding to upgrade Kerr County's flood response.
They called it “too expensive.” Now we call it a graveyard.
The Disaster Unfolds: 4th of July, 2025
Early on the morning of July 4th, a brutal thunderstorm system — turbocharged by tropical moisture from the remnants of Storm Barry — stalled over the region.
Within hours, over 200 millimeters (8 inches) of rain hammered the hills. In just 45 minutes, the Guadalupe River surged by eight meters (26 feet).
More than 750 children were asleep at Camp Mystic. Some parents were on-site, trying to rescue their kids. One father launched a kayak in a desperate attempt to reach his daughters. He was swept away. Both girls drowned.
By Monday, eleven remained missing. The death toll — already staggering — was still climbing.
The Warning Came Too Late — And Too Weak
The first preliminary alert from the National Weather Service (NWS) came on July 3rd, noting the potential for flash flooding.
But the more urgent Flash Flood Emergency alert wasn’t issued until after 4 a.m. — hours too late. And even that message relied on mobile phones in a rural area where reception is notoriously bad.
The Texas Division of Emergency Management repositioned teams ahead of time. But it wasn’t enough. Not nearly. And no mandatory evacuation was ordered for the camp, despite flood risks.
Political Deflection and Budgetary Crimes
What followed was the standard American script: finger-pointing, media spin, and deflection.
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Texas disaster chief Nim Kidd claimed the NWS "didn't predict this level of rainfall."
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Trump administration officials labeled criticism “disgusting and shameful politicization.”
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Kristi Noem, Secretary of Homeland Security, admitted the flood alert system had “shortcomings” — and promised to upgrade “outdated” tech.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s 2026 budget proposes eliminating all scientific weather and climate research units under NOAA — including the National Weather Service.
Let that sink in: While children drowned, this government was planning to defund the agency responsible for warning them.
Warnings Were Ignored, Because Children Don’t Vote
In February 2025, climate scientists warned that staff shortages at the NWS could have “lethal consequences.”
A month later, Texas slashed property taxes by $51 billion, while underfunding flood mitigation by over $53 billion, despite expert reports outlining that exact need.
Let’s be blunt: the Texas state legislature, dominated by climate-denying Republicans, has consistently underfunded public safety measures in flood-prone areas.
They didn’t see the cost of preparedness as worth it. Now we see the cost of inaction: 90 lives.
Science Can Predict Storms — But Not Politics
Meteorologists did their job. They saw the moisture, the stalled system, the conditions for explosive rain.
What they can’t do — what no model can do — is force local authorities to act.
As Prof. Michael Morgan of the University of Wisconsin told NPR: predicting exact rainfall at a specific location remains one of the toughest problems in science.
Often, the warning window is two hours at best. But without proper warning infrastructure, those hours vanish into chaos.
Olivia Romppainen-Martius from the University of Bern put it plainly: you can forecast storms — but not the will to listen.
Texas Isn’t Alone — Ahrtal, Valencia, Derna: The Pattern Is Global
This disaster mirrors others: Germany’s Ahrtal flood of 2021, Spain’s Valencia storm in 2024, Libya’s Derna dam collapse. In each case:
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Meteorologists warned in advance.
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Governments failed to act.
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Vulnerable people died preventable deaths.
The patterns repeat. The bodies pile up.
Conclusion: They Didn’t Just Die From Water — They Died From Neglect
Let’s call it what it is: disaster by design. Not by natural forces alone — but by deregulation, budget cuts, climate denial, and a warped political culture that treats children, the poor, and rural populations as expendable.
The girls of Camp Mystic didn’t need to die. They were betrayed by the very system that was supposed to protect them.
Next Steps: What Must Change
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Federal flood warning mandates must override local inaction.
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Reinstate and expand funding for NOAA, FEMA, and NWS.
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National siren systems for all flood-prone areas — especially camps and schools.
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Criminal liability for elected officials who ignore disaster warnings.
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Climate adaptation as infrastructure priority — not a partisan issue.
This isn’t about weather. It’s about responsibility. If we fail to learn from Texas, more children will die.
The storm may be over, but the next one is coming. And next time, it may be your town — your family.
Will we be ready?
Or will we once again search for bodies, then for someone else to blame?
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