Showing posts with label Dear Disaster Diary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dear Disaster Diary. Show all posts

Saturday, December 7, 2024

Dear Daily Disaster Diary, Dec.07 2024

 Crises and deadlocks when they occur have at least this advantage, that they force us to think.

- Jawaharial Nehru


Thursday, July 18, 2024

 We cannot be separated in interest or divided in purpose. We stand together until the end.

- Woodrow Wilson


Dear Disaster Diary,

Reason #575 not to vote Republican in November 2024: 

History takes us back to the revised North American Free Trade Agreement unveiled under Trump in 2019.

Let's take a moment to appreciate the spectacle of the White House's proclamation: "The Biggest and best trade deal in the history of the world." This grandiose declaration, much like many from the Trump era, falls spectacularly short upon closer examination. 

In reality, the updated agreement is more akin to a slight reshuffling of deck chairs on the Titanic than a monumental achievement in international trade.

Yes, there are some changes for the better. Mexico has agreed to adopt stronger protections for labor unions—though, given the administration's track record on workers' rights domestically, one might question the sincerity of this victory lap. 

Canada will now allow the sale of more American dairy products, which is wonderful news for the lactose-tolerant among us. However, these minor improvements are overshadowed by significant drawbacks that make it difficult to celebrate this "accomplishment."

For instance, the new restrictions on auto imports are poised to raise the price of new vehicles. In an economy where many families are already struggling to make ends meet, the prospect of more expensive cars is hardly a welcome development. 

It's a classic case of winning the battle but losing the war, as higher costs for consumers negate any supposed benefits of the deal.

Even more egregious is the glaring omission of any commitment to address climate change. At a time when the world is grappling with the escalating impacts of a warming planet, the absence of environmental considerations in this trade agreement is nothing short of irresponsible. It’s a stark reminder of the administration’s indifference towards the most pressing global crisis of our time.

The irony, of course, is that this deal may indeed represent the best possible outcome under Trump's leadership—a low bar if ever there was one. It is, after all, a presidency marked by bombast over substance, where lofty claims often crumble under the weight of scrutiny. 

The USMCA, as it is now called, stands as a testament to the administration's penchant for overselling and underdelivering.

In the grand scheme of things, this "minor deal" might do more harm than good. It exemplifies how the Trump presidency, with its superficial fixes and neglect of critical issues, continues to ill-serve the American people. 

As we approach November 2024, let us remember that the legacy of this administration is built on such hollow triumphs and misplaced priorities.

Yours scathingly, 

Disaster Diary

Wednesday, July 3, 2024

Dear Disaster Diary, 



Where everything is bad it must be good to know the worst.
- Francis H. Bradley



An Ode to the 4th of July


On this day of freedom and reflection,
We face the shadows of our own creation.
The problems we're facing as a nation right now are structural,
Demanding radical solutions, truths fundamental.


One party delves deeper into a universe,
Of delusion, disinformation, a curse.
Human beings, still hunter-gatherers at heart,
Struggle to foresee, to play the long-term part.


Our brains, wired for immediate threats,
Fail to see the cave collapsing in regrets.
The world unready to slow climate’s pace,
Nor to live with the changes we must face.


Cities warming at twice the global rate,
Air conditioning helps, but fuels the state.
Imagine a power outage, heat wave severe,
A catastrophe that’s ever so near.


Trees, nature's gift, cool and store carbon,
Scrub air, nurture life, and help us harden.
Yet each year, cities lose 36 million strong,
Despite efforts to plant and right the wrong.


Preparing for the last disaster we’ve known,
Leaves us unprepared for the next storm blown.
The lessons from the extreme weather parade,
Show the U.S. unready, foundations decayed.


Electric grids, sewers, forests in need,
Of fortification, revamp, and clear heed.
But there's a limit to how much we can adapt,
If emissions aren’t cut, resilience entraps.


Heat waves, floods, droughts, wildfires in extreme,
Make adaptation alone a fading dream.
On this day of freedom, let’s pledge anew,
To face reality, and truth pursue.


For if we’re to honor this land so grand,
We must act now, with a united hand.
Let this be our anthem, a call to unite,
For the future we cherish, for the battles we fight.

Sunday, June 30, 2024

 Dear Disaster Diary,



Fate is the friend of the good, the guide of the wise, the tyrant of the foolish, the enemy of the bad.
- William Rounseville Alger

.......oh, Canada......🎂

Reassessing the Economic Effects of Climate Change


Introduction

In recent years, the conversation around climate change and its economic impacts has evolved significantly. Initially, economist William Nordhaus's 1992 work laid the foundation for understanding how climate change would affect the global economy. He estimated that for every degree of global warming, the world economy would shrink by 1 to 3 percent. This view, while concerning, suggested manageable challenges. However, a new paper from the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is challenging this established perspective.


A New Perspective on Climate Change

Harvard University's Adrien Bilal and Northwestern University's Diego Kanzig have released a groundbreaking study, "The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature." This research indicates that the economic effects of climate change might be much more severe than previously thought. They argue that extreme weather events, such as storms and droughts, which are becoming more frequent due to climate change, play a significant role in economic damage. These events do not respect national borders and are closely linked to global temperature changes.


Key Findings

Bilal and Kanzig's study highlights several critical points:

  1. Underestimation of Damage: Previous studies focused mainly on how rising temperatures directly affect productivity. However, the new research shows that extreme weather also depletes capital, leading to greater economic losses.

  2. Significant Economic Impact: The study estimates that by the end of this century, the world economy could be 31 percent poorer due to climate change. Additionally, they argue that the world economy would be 37 percent larger today if global warming had not occurred since 1960.

  3. Slowing Global Growth: The global growth rate has been slowing, especially in Western countries. This trend might be partially attributed to the economic effects of climate change.

  4. Future Economic Challenges: The number and severity of extreme weather events and zoonotic pandemics (diseases transmitted from animals to humans) have been rising. These trends are likely to continue, leading to higher costs for repairing infrastructure and increased social and healthcare expenses.


Implications for Canada and the World

The study suggests that the economic impact of climate change will be felt globally, with no country exempt. Rich countries, including Canada, will not escape unscathed. In fact, developed nations have more infrastructure that can be damaged by extreme weather, and their older populations are more vulnerable to its effects.


Carbon Tax and the Social Cost of Carbon

One of the significant takeaways from the study is the need to reassess the carbon tax. Canada's current carbon tax is $80 per tonne, but previous estimates of the social cost of carbon ranged from $100 to $200. Bilal and Kanzig argue that the true cost should be much higher, potentially over $1000 per tonne. They suggest that failing to pay this cost now will lead to much higher expenses in the future, likening it to the perpetual economic strain of a domestic war.


Conclusion

In summary, the new research from the NBER presents a stark warning about the economic effects of climate change. The findings suggest that climate change will significantly reduce global economic output, with severe implications for all countries, including Canada. This study emphasizes the importance of taking immediate and substantial action to combat climate change, highlighting that the costs of inaction will be far greater in the long run. 

As we celebrate Canada Day, it's crucial to reflect on these findings and consider the steps needed to protect our future economic well-being.

Sunday, June 2, 2024

 Dear Disaster Diary,

 

A hypocrite is the kind of politician who would cut down a redwood tree, then mount the stump and make a speech for conservation.

- Adial E. Stevenson 

 

The European Green Deal-Visionary Policy Or Empty Promises?

The Green Deal or Red Alert?

The European Climate Law mandates climate neutrality by 2050. By then, industry and households are only allowed to emit as much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases as can be absorbed by technical and natural means. 

Fifty individual measures and numerous laws are intended to push this initiative forward. The "Fit for 55" package sets an interim goal: by 2030, emissions should drop by 55 percent compared to 1990 levels. 

Yet, the project is stalling. For a highly industrialized continent like Europe, whose residents are accustomed to a wasteful lifestyle, the Green Deal has proven to be an exceedingly ambitious undertaking. 

Member states' measures were insufficient to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 as planned, the Commission stated last December. Some countries are lagging, but the Commission has also been less steadfast as the Green Deal faced increasing resistance.

Lobbying has had an effect; contrary to initial plans, agriculture is not required to halve pesticide use. The EU had aimed to improve soil and groundwater quality through this measure. Additionally, the sector faces no specific reduction target for greenhouse gases. 

"Our farmers deserve to be heard," said Ursula von der Leyen. The industry, too, has grown increasingly dissatisfied. Since the onset of the Ukraine war, it has suffered from paying more for energy than competitors in the US and China. 

Expensive environmental measures, tied up in bureaucracy, are not seen as viable. Heated conflicts arose over questions such as which companies should comply with the supply chain law and whether only electric cars should be allowed in the EU from 2035. 

Consequently, the administratively burdensome supply chain law was somewhat simplified. The target year 2035 for the "combustion engine ban" still stands—at least for now, with exceptions. In 2026, the Commission will review the law. 

Moreover, even after 2035, cars running on e-fuels, i.e., synthetic fuels, will still be permitted.

Nothing could stop Ursula von der Leyen; the EU Commission President steadfastly implemented her Green Deal, and it packs a punch. The expropriation of farmers through land set-asides and the damage to the European automotive industry through the combustion engine ban are part of it. 

The German CDU politician could rely on an informal coalition of Social Democrats and Christian Democrats in the European Parliament. 

Initially, only the national conservatives to far-right parties in Europe rejected the Green Deal, which comprises around fifty laws. 

Von der Leyen and her broad coalition could still routinely sit that out. The argument of populism avoids any serious substantive discussion in Brussels as well. 

But then the farmers began to demonstrate—in France, Poland, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, and Belgium. 

Hay bale barricades and street blockades with tractors are not democratic protests. They are sheer coercion, but at the same time a powerful expression of the "vox populi."

The EU is neither one nor the other. It is not a democracy, nor a republic. 

It is a homunculus mixing democratic elements like the European Parliament with the undemocratic principle of unanimity. However, the EU is a good seismograph for the mood in Europe. 

The "firewall," i.e., the uncompromising demarcation from right-wing parties, has long been fiction at the European level. 

Ironically, the German Ursula von der Leyen demonstrates to her compatriots, afflicted with exclusionitis, how to cooperate with ill-reputed parties when it benefits oneself. 

Under the pressure of the streets and the likely changing majorities, the European pseudo-democracy proves an adaptability that full-fledged democracy in Germany lacks. 

Recently, Marine Le Pen and Giorgia Meloni were still the "most dangerous women in Europe." Today, they are considered somewhat respectable, especially since they ended their factional alliance with the AfD. 

The two women are joining forces more closely. They see the historic chance to expand their power because the old parties have created a vacuum with an unrealistic asylum and climate policy. 

Nothing is more populist than a climate policy that proudly sets tough goals but cannot even present soft means to achieve them.

When a Herculean effort like the Green Deal also appears as a mere elite project, the mess is perfect. 

One should not be surprised when farmers take politics into their own hands, and judges in Strasbourg or Karlsruhe act as climate experts.

It’s Red Alert Time!

Whenever a politician trumpets net zero by 2050, especially one like Frau von der Leyen, who will be around 92 by then, just tune out and do not take her seriously. Do yourself a favor: do not vote for the EPP (European People's Party). 

And don’t vote for right-wing parties either. There’s no time left for a “protest vote.” Tell the EU that you are content with three climate laws: clean air to breathe, clean water to drink, and non-toxic soil for growing food.

Frau von der Leyen’s CV is a disaster. Despite holding a medical degree (you would think "health before wealth", but no!), her lack of transparency in governance disqualifies her as the right President for the EU. 

Why does it feel like the EPP stands for European Puppet Play, with Ursula as the master pulling the strings? 

It’s crucial to make it perfectly clear: do not vote for the EPP and work to oust President Ursula von der Leyen!


 

Friday, April 19, 2024

 Dear Disaster Diary,


History repeats itself, and that`s one of the things that`s wrong with history.
- Clarence Darrow

Trailer - Years Of Living Dangerously



"We Will Never Learn": The Perpetual Pitfalls of Global Warming Advocacy

In April 2014, Showtime unveiled a nine-part series on climate change and natural disasters titled "Years of Living Dangerously," intending to raise public concern about global warming.

Yet, despite good intentions, such fear-based tactics have historically backfired, fostering denial, fatalism, and polarization among the public.

Over a decade of research has shown that emphasizing extreme weather events to highlight climate change risks is counterproductive.

Al Gore's 2006 documentary, "An Inconvenient Truth," despite its impact, contributed to public backlash and polarization. Since then, public opinion on global warming has remained stubbornly divided, with increasing skepticism especially among conservatives.

Efforts to link climate change to natural disasters have been shown to lead some to fatalism, perceiving climate change as an unavoidable act of nature.

Shocking and catastrophic portrayals of climate impacts may initially capture attention but fail to motivate meaningful engagement or action.

Moreover, these tactics can even increase skepticism and denial, as evidenced by psychological studies.

The Frameworks Institute studied public attitudes for its report "How To Talk About Global Warming". Messages focused on extreme weather events, they found, made many Americans more likely to view climate change as an act of God - something to be weathered, not prevented.

Some people, the report noted, "are likely to buy an SUV to help them through the erratic weather to come" for example, rather than support fuel-efficiency standards.

(10 years later we have to admit that an SUV is the better Get-Away-Car in case of wildfires for example. It`ll fit your family, pets camping and survival gear nicely. And if you keep it like we recommend with a full tank of gas plus spare gas canister you`ll be glad not having an electric car! SUV`s did better in this years Snow- disasters as well. And honestly, lots of North-Americans wouldn`t fit into a compact car anyway).

The scientific consensus does not support directly attributing specific weather events like blizzards, droughts, or hurricanes solely to global warming.

While our warming planet does lead to certain trends like increased heat waves and intense precipitation, economic growth and development in vulnerable areas are primary drivers of rising disaster costs.

Rather than invoking fear and catastrophe, effective climate advocacy should focus on feasible and popular solutions. Research suggests that emphasizing a diverse array of low-carbon technologies, including nuclear energy and geoengineering, can help bridge ideological divides and garner broader support for climate action.

Unfortunately, major environmental organizations have been slow to embrace these pragmatic solutions, continuing to reject technologies like nuclear energy.

This stance, coupled with exaggerated claims of climate emergencies, only serves to deepen public skepticism.

In conclusion, the ongoing cycle of fear-based climate messaging and reluctance to embrace practical solutions underscores a broader failure in climate advocacy. To truly address the challenges of global warming, we must move beyond alarmism and polarization, prioritizing evidence-based solutions that can unite rather than divide us.

Until then, it seems we are doomed to repeat the same ineffective strategies, perpetuating a cycle of inaction and disbelief in the face of our planet's most pressing crisis.

Tuesday, March 19, 2024

 Dear Disaster Diary,


All authority belongs to the people.
- Thomas Jefferson







Ah, the chaotic symphony of world affairs, where the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse seem to be having a field day in the political arena.

In a stunning display of irony, it appears that the Book of Revelation is not merely a spiritual guide but a political playbook as well.

First up, we have Putin, the perennial "War" horseman, who's just secured another round of applause from Russian voters—or should we say, from the carefully curated selection of ballots.

But fear not, for the Western world, with its valiant knights in shining armor, holds the keys to halt his gallop towards unchecked power.

Will they rise to the challenge, or will they be too busy bickering amongst themselves to notice?

Next in line is Xi Jinping, the embodiment of "Conquest" with a side hustle in pestilence management, thanks to his handling of Covid.

With dreams of reclaiming Taiwan dancing in his head, Xi is poised to ride roughshod over international norms. But let's not forget the lessons of history: conquerors often stumble over their own hubris.

And then we have the dynamic duo of "Famine" Netanyahu and "Death" Trump, who seem determined to bring biblical proportions of chaos to the Middle East.

Netanyahu's annexation aspirations and Trump's erratic policies are a recipe for disaster, but the people have shown they hold the reins of power. From the streets of Israel to the ballot boxes of America, the voice of the people can still be heard—provided they choose to speak up.

But amidst this apocalyptic spectacle, there's a glaring absence of foresight when it comes to our shared existential threat: climate change.

These horsemen may have their nuclear warheads, but they seem oblivious to the looming catastrophe of global warming. Perhaps they think they can ride out the storm atop their pale horses, but reality has a way of crashing through delusions.

So, dear readers, as we watch this surreal circus unfold, let us not forget our role as spectators and participants in shaping the fate of our world.

The Four Horsemen may be galloping towards their divine end-time, but it's up to us to decide whether it's a tragedy or a farce. And remember, when faced with the apocalypse, a healthy dose of irony might just be our best defense.


Acknowledgment: Wikipedia, New York Times

Friday, March 15, 2024

Dear Disaster Diary, 



Action to be effective must be directed to clearly conceived ends.
- Jawaharial Nehru

KB/D stands for thousand barrels per day. It is a unit of measurement commonly used in the oil and gas industry to express the rate of oil production or consumption. Specifically, it represents a flow rate of 1,000 barrels of oil per day. So, when you encounter this abbreviation, it refers to a significant volume of oil being produced or consumed daily.

Reducing Oil Dependency: 10 Simple Actions for Advanced Economies

In today's world, where concerns about climate change and resource depletion are paramount, it is imperative for advanced economies to take immediate steps to reduce their reliance on oil. By implementing a series of straightforward measures, we can collectively cut oil demand by a significant 2.7 million barrels a day within just four months. Let's delve into these actions and their potential impacts:

Action 1: Adjusting Speed Limits

Lowering speed limits on highways by a modest 10 km/h can yield substantial benefits. This simple change can save approximately 290 kb/d of oil from cars and an additional 140 kb/d from trucks, contributing significantly to our oil conservation efforts.

Action 2: Embracing Remote Work

Encouraging remote work, with employees working from home up to three days a week where feasible, is another effective strategy. Just one day of remote work per week can save roughly 170 kb/d, while three days could save an impressive 500 kb/d, showcasing the power of telecommuting in reducing oil consumption.

Action 3: Implementing Car-Free Sundays

Designating Sundays as car-free days in urban centers is a practical solution to curb oil usage. Each car-free Sunday can save around 380 kb/d, with even one Sunday a month contributing a significant saving of 95 kb/d.

Action 4: Promoting Public Transport and Micro-Mobility

Making public transport more affordable and incentivizing micro-mobility options like walking and cycling can lead to substantial reductions in oil consumption. These measures have the potential to save approximately 330 kb/d, encouraging a shift towards more sustainable modes of transportation.

Action 5: Managing Urban Traffic

Implementing alternate access to roads for private cars in large cities can alleviate congestion and reduce oil usage. This initiative could save around 210 kb/d, demonstrating the importance of smart urban planning in mitigating oil dependency.

Action 6: Encouraging Car-Sharing

Increasing the prevalence of car-sharing programs and adopting fuel-efficient driving practices are effective ways to conserve oil. These measures could save around 470 kb/d, highlighting the benefits of collaborative consumption and eco-conscious driving habits.

Action 7: Optimizing Freight Transportation

Promoting efficient driving practices for freight trucks and optimizing the delivery of goods can yield substantial oil savings. This action has the potential to save approximately 320 kb/d, underscoring the importance of sustainable logistics solutions.

Action 8: Prioritizing Rail Travel

Substituting high-speed and night trains for air travel whenever possible can further reduce oil consumption. This shift could save around 40 kb/d, emphasizing the role of rail infrastructure in providing eco-friendly transportation alternatives.

Action 9: Minimizing Business Air Travel

Encouraging businesses to avoid air travel when viable alternatives exist is crucial in reducing oil demand. This measure could save around 250 kb/d, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing sustainable travel options.

Action 10: Transitioning to Electric Vehicles

Accelerating the adoption of electric and energy-efficient vehicles is essential for long-term oil conservation. This initiative could save around 100 kb/d, highlighting the potential of clean transportation technologies in mitigating oil dependency.

In conclusion, by implementing these ten actions, advanced economies can make significant strides towards reducing their oil consumption in a short span of time. Through a combination of policy interventions, behavioral changes, and technological advancements, we can pave the way for a more sustainable and resilient future. It's time to act decisively and collectively to address the pressing challenges of oil dependency and environmental degradation.


Acknowledgments: iea International Energy Agency

Monday, March 11, 2024

 Dear Disaster Diary,


A politician thinks of the next election; a statesman, of the next generation.
- J.F. Clarke



US climate envoy John Kerry on how climate will impact 2024 Elections.

Title: John Kerry's Climate Interview: A Call for Unvarnished Truth

Dear John,

As I watched your recent BBC interview on the impact of climate change on the 2024 elections, I couldn't help but feel a pang of disappointment.

The conversation seemed to lack the raw honesty and urgency that the current climate crisis demands, especially for our younger generations who are grappling with escalating climate anxiety.

Allow me to illuminate the stark reality that seems to have been glossed over. A recent study published in The Lancet, drawing insights from 10,000 young individuals aged 16 to 25 worldwide, revealed a troubling truth: 45% of them reported that climate change is significantly impeding their daily lives and well-being. From eating and sleeping to concentrating and playing, the effects of climate change permeate every facet of their existence.

Yet, amidst this growing turmoil, where was your unfiltered truth?

It seems your political hat remained firmly in place, shielding you from the discomfort of confronting harsh realities. Let's peel back the layers and expose the inconvenient truths lurking beneath the surface.

Timecode: 06:44

Since the advent of the Trump administration in 2017, over 100 environmental rollbacks have been enacted, paving the way for a reckless pursuit of profit at the expense of our planet.

Conservative lobbyists gleefully championed the relaxation of regulations on tailpipe emissions and cheered for increased mercury emissions from coal power plants. They dismantled critical methane emission limits on public lands and turned a blind eye to the rampant pollution in our national parks and wilderness areas.

The consequences are dire, and the impending political landscape only exacerbates the peril.

With the possibility of conservative dominance in the House, Senate, and Presidency, the coastlines face an ominous fate. (The young would say: "The coast is toast")

Trump's cavalier policy changes, such as permitting the extraction of sand from protected ecosystems for coastal replenishment projects, epitomize the reckless disregard for environmental preservation.

But let's not stop there.

Enter "Project 2025," a sweeping Republican strategy poised to eviscerate regulations aimed at curbing greenhouse gas emissions, dismantle clean energy initiatives, and bolster fossil fuel production.

"As absurd as it may sound, the resurrection of asbestos could be on the horizon if it serves their agenda".

As an 80-year-old sage, John, you possess a unique perspective unclouded by political maneuvering. It's time to shed the veil of diplomacy and speak the unvarnished truth.

The looming climate emergency lays bare the stark reality: capitalism's insatiable appetite for profit trumps all else, even the survival of our species.

Fossil fuels, the lifeblood of our modern society, have exacted a heavy toll on our planet, yet their allure remains irresistible.

The term "transitioning" feels like a feeble attempt to sugarcoat the harsh reality – we're running out of time, and our children deserve more than empty promises.

In the face of escalating climate anxiety and the resurgence of age-old scourges like disease and war, ADAPTATION becomes our only recourse.

But let's not mistake ADAPTATION for resignation – it's a call to action, a rallying cry for systemic change.

So, John, as you bid farewell to your role, I implore you to embrace the mantle of truth-teller.

Our children deserve nothing less than unvarnished honesty, tinged with the biting sarcasm that the situation demands. Let your departure serve as a testament to the power of truth in the face of adversity.

Sincerely,

ADAPTATION-GUIDE

Dear Daily Disaster Diary, May 21 2026

  The Return of the Victory Garden: Why Europe’s Cities May Need to Grow Their Own Food Again During the darkest years of the Second World W...