“Every empire that ever tried to own Europe eventually learned the same lesson: We are not a prize. We are the battlefield.”
- adaptationguide.com
EUROPE IN THE CROSSHAIRS: RUSSIA MENACES US, CHINA OWNS US, AND AMERICA GHOSTS US — SO WHAT NOW?
Europe is 80 years old and still dealing with teenage heartbreak — confused and shaken after a sudden American breakup. Days ago, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk sent an emotional message across the digital ocean:
“Dear Americans, Europe is your closest ally, not your problem. At least that is how it has been for the past 80 years. We must hold on to this. It is the only reasonable strategy for our common security. Unless something has changed.”
Well guess what: something has changed.
And everyone knows it — even Poland, America’s most loyal European partner.
The United States isn’t hiding it anymore. Trump made it painfully obvious: Europe is weak, its leaders are “really stupid,” and America is done babysitting us. Washington wants new friends, new deals, new priorities — and Europe simply doesn’t matter like it used to.
Trump even published a breakup letter: the new U.S. National Security Strategy. A document that reads less like policy and more like a threat. It accuses Europe of censorship, oppression, failed migration policy, failed energy policy, failed economics, and predicts nothing less than “civilizational extinction.”
Far-right parties across Europe are thrilled — because these are their talking points. Marine Le Pen pretends to be outraged by American interference, but everyone sees the game: Europe is on its own now, whether it admits it or not.
And we are being squeezed from three sides — Russia, China, and the United States.
This has never happened before.
RUSSIA: THE MILITARY THREAT — DO WE NEED THEM? ABSOLUTELY NOT.
Russia is already at war with Europe — hybrid, digital, psychological. Missiles and tanks may soon follow. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte just warned publicly:
“We are Russia’s next target.”
He has never said it this clearly.
And let’s be honest: Moscow isn’t threatening us because it is strong. It is threatening us because we let ourselves get weak. Decades of underfunded armies. Decades of illusions that peace is permanent. Decades of pretending Putin was a business partner instead of an imperial predator.
We don’t need Russia for anything — not food, not fuel, not technology, not culture, not manufacturing.
We need Russia out of Ukraine and out of Europe’s future.
That’s it.
CHINA: THE ECONOMIC LIFELINE — DO WE NEED THEM? RIGHT NOW, YES. BUT NOT FOREVER.
Europe is chained to China economically — and Beijing holds the key.
Europe sells to China.
Europe buys from China.
Europe depends on Chinese production for:
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electric motors
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battery components
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wind turbine generators
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sensors
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and, most humiliatingly, weapons manufacturing
If Europe pushes back against China’s export flooding, Beijing can simply shut off the tap — and Europe collapses.
Like it or not, China currently sits at the longer lever.
But here’s the truth nobody wants to say:
Europe could replace China in ten years — if it actually cared enough to try.
THE UNITED STATES: THE SECURITY BASELINE — DO WE NEED THEM? NOT THE WAY WE USED TO.
America has pulled the rug out from under Europe’s feet. NATO still exists, but U.S. willingness to fight for Europe is now a question mark — not a guarantee.
Trump reportedly gave Europe a deadline:
By 2027, Europe must take over most of its own defense.
Satellite surveillance. Missile systems. Ground forces. Everything.
Totally unrealistic? Yes.
Totally necessary? Also yes.
In Ukraine, America is no longer a partner — it is a “mediator.” Worse: a mediator leaning toward Moscow. Europe and Ukraine are begging Washington not to force a Russian peace deal on Kyiv — a peace deal written with Kremlin ink.
Meanwhile, Russia isn’t even at the negotiation table.
In private, German Chancellor Scholz reportedly told Zelensky:
“They are playing games — with you and with us.”
That about sums it up.
Next week in Berlin, more “talks” — Trump’s envoys Kushner and Witkoff will attend.
Translation: the U.S. is negotiating Europe’s future with European lives on the line.
THE ROOT CAUSE: WE LET OURSELVES ROT.
Europe spent decades shrinking its armies and wasting its peace dividend. Washington urged us to chase terror across the world instead of defending our own continent. NATO soldiers fought and died “out of area,” especially in Afghanistan.
Remember the German Defense Minister in 2004?
“Our security is also defended in the Hindu Kush.”
Today, after America ran from Kabul and delivered the country back to the Taliban, that statement looks pathetic.
Four years into the Ukraine war, Europe is still militarily fragile. Germany, France, and Britain are politically paralyzed. Far-right nationalism is rising everywhere.
And yet — Europe is not the same Europe it was four years ago.
The weapons factories are roaring — three shifts a day.
New systems are online — ballistic missile defense in East Germany, fully operational.
And diplomatically, Europe has held the line against Trump on Ukraine.
For now.
SO WHAT DOES EUROPE ACTUALLY NEED TO SURVIVE?
Here is the brutal answer:
Europe does not need Russia.
Europe does not need America.
But Europe does need China — temporarily.
What Europe truly needs is:
1. FOOD SECURITY
Europe feeds itself. That is power. Protect it. Expand it. Turn agriculture into strategic infrastructure, not a subsidy game.
2. ENERGY INDEPENDENCE
Wind, solar, geothermal, nuclear, storage — not Russian oil, not Arab gas, not American LNG, not Chinese batteries.
Europe has the technology.
Europe lacks the courage.
3. RAW MATERIALS
Lithium, nickel, copper, graphite. We need mines in Europe.
Not in Africa, not in China, not in Australia — here.
Get uncomfortable. Start digging.
4. MANUFACTURING COMEBACK
The pandemic should have been enough.
Ukraine should have been enough.
China’s leverage should have been enough.
Europe needs factories — battery factories, solar factories, chip factories, turbine factories, weapons factories.
5. A REAL ARMY
Not 27 small armies.
One coordinated military-industrial system.
Shared logistics, shared command structure, shared budget.
Not NATO-dependent — Europe-dependent.
6. POLITICAL MATURITY
No more illusions.
No more dependency.
No more whining when America ignores us.
History isn’t soft.
Geopolitics isn’t gentle.
Survival isn’t outsourced.
THE FUTURE: FIVE YEARS TO CHOOSE
The question of the 2020s isn’t:
“Who will save Europe?”
The question is:
“Will Europe save itself?”
Russia can destroy us.
America can abandon us.
China can starve our industries.
But Europe can do one thing they cannot:
Build a future on its own soil.
A future where we make our own tools, fight our own wars, power our own homes, produce our own machines, and define our own destiny.
A future where Europe stops being a playground for superpowers —
and becomes one.
🔥 HARD EUROPE STATISTICS:
1) EUROPE’S MILITARY SPENDING — Rising, But Still Behind the Threat
🇪🇺 EU defense spending (collective):
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In 2024, EU Member States spent €343 billion on defence — up sharply and rising every year.
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In 2025 it’s expected to hit €381 billion, an 11 % increase year-on-year and nearly 63 % higher than in 2020. Investment spending is skyrocketing too. Consilium
Comparative perspective:
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Europe’s combined defense budgets still trail Russia’s total military budget — with Russian defense spending rising 42 % in real terms and reportedly exceeding all of Europe’s defense budgets combined on a purchasing-power basis. Financial Times
Percentage of GDP:
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EU states are increasing military share of GDP from 1.6 % in 2023 to around 2.1 % in 2025 — but NATO neighbours call for 5 % target to face real threats. Consilium
Why this matters:
Europe says it fears Russia — but its defense investment is still far below what would truly deter a modern invasion. These figures show progress, but also how far behind we still are.
2) EUROPE’S DEPENDENCY ON CHINA FOR CRITICAL MATERIALS
This is the real chokepoint in Europe’s strategic autonomy:
China’s dominance in raw materials:
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China produces 86 % of the world’s rare earth supply — materials essential for high-tech weapons, satellites, radar and clean energy tech. European Parliament
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The EU is hugely dependent on Chinese imports of critical minerals:
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~98 % of rare earths
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~97 % of lithium
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~93 % of magnesium
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~83 % of germanium
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heavy rare earths: 100 % imported from China. amchameu.eu+1
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Other details:
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China supplies 31 % of the EU’s tungsten and 97 % of its magnesium metal — materials used in defense and energy tech. euronews
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EU produces just 1 %–5 % of the critical materials it needs domestically; demand for rare earth metals may grow sixfold by 2030. euronews
What this means:
Europe may build tanks and jets — but it cannot produce the materials that power them without China. This is not just an economic issue — it’s a supply-chain chokehold with geopolitical implications.
3) ENERGY & RAW MATERIALS — HOW EUROPE STILL FEEDS RUSSIA
Europe’s dependency on Russian energy — even during war — remains shocking:
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In the third year of the war in Ukraine, the EU spent €21.9 billion on Russian oil and gas — actually more than it gave as financial aid to Ukraine that same year. The Guardian
This reveals that Europe still feeds the Kremlin’s war machine with cash, even while it criticises Russian aggression.
4) WEAPONS PROCUREMENT IS STILL FOREIGN-MADE
Even as Europe spends more on defense, it buys weapons from abroad:
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Before recent strategy changes, *around 80 % of European weapons procurement occurred outside the EU — mainly from the U.S. This highlights a profound lack of domestic military industrial capability. AP News
Europe is paying for defense with money that doesn’t build capacity here at home. That’s strategic weakness — not strength.
5) HOW MUCH EUROPE REALLY SPENDS — AVERAGES & RELATIVE COMPARISONS
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The average EU defense spending in 2023 was 1.6 % of GDP, below NATO targets and far below what would be required to sustainably match threats. Wikipedia
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In contrast, some Eastern European states already devote 4 %+ of GDP to defense — but their overall budgets are still smaller than larger economies like Germany and France. Consilium
This data reflects a mixed picture: some countries take defense seriously — others remain complacent.
yours truly,
Adaptation-Guide
