“Climate change did not create Nigeria’s violence—but it sharpened it, armed it, and gave it permission to spread.”
- adaptationguide.com
Nigeria’s Silent War: When Faith, Climate Collapse, and Political Cowardice Collide
Going to church in Nigeria today is an act of defiance.
During the four Sundays of Advent alone, Nigerian Christians were hunted.
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First Advent (late November): In Kogi State, armed men abducted a priest, his wife, and several worshippers during a church service.
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Second Advent: In Anambra State, the wife of a priest and another Christian were shot dead at dawn as they gathered for Mass. Another priest was kidnapped. The church was burned.
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Third Advent: Thirteen worshippers were dragged out of a church and abducted—again in Kogi.
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Fourth Advent: No reports. Not because nothing happened—because terror has become routine.
According to Nigeria’s civil rights organization Intersociety, an average of 1,200 churches have been attacked every year since 2009. That’s three attacks per day—for more than a decade.
Christmas, in Africa’s most populous country, has long ceased to be a season of peace.
“They Are Targeting Christians”
Bishop Wilfred Chikpa Anagbe knows this war intimately.
As Bishop of Makurdi, capital of Benue State—on Nigeria’s volatile religious fault line—he has witnessed entire Christian communities overrun. Churches burned. Villages erased. Congregations massacred.
“They are targeting Christians,” Anagbe says plainly.
Nigeria’s population is almost evenly split:
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46.2% Christian
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45.8% Muslim
But geography matters.
Twelve northern states enforce Sharia law. Islamist militant groups—Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP)—have terrorized the north for over 15 years. Initially, Muslim communities were the main victims. Today, the violence has shifted southward, where Christians dominate.
In November, the world briefly paid attention when more than 320 children were kidnapped from a Catholic school in Niger State—the largest school abduction in Nigeria’s history. All were eventually released after negotiations, according to Catholic aid group Missio.
But the bishop does not mince words:
“The goal is the Islamization of Nigeria.”
He goes further—where diplomats refuse to tread.
“If genocide is defined as the systematic, organized destruction of part or all of a religious group—then this is genocide.”
Genocide—or Convenient Denial?
Nigeria’s president, Bola Tinubu, rejects the genocide accusation. He claims the conflict is economic and criminal, not religious.
And he is not entirely wrong—but he is dangerously incomplete.
Because Nigeria’s violence is not a single conflict.
It is three overlapping crises, feeding each other:
1. Islamist Terrorism
Boko Haram and ISWAP operate across porous borders with Niger, Chad, and Cameroon. Entire regions—especially around Lake Chad—are effectively ungoverned. Weapons and fighters flow freely.
2. Climate Collapse and Resource War
The Lake Chad Basin is drying up. Desertification is accelerating. Farmland is shrinking.
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Nigeria’s population is expected to nearly double to 400 million by 2050
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Climate change is projected to reduce agricultural yields by 20–30%
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Farmers and herders are being forced into direct confrontation
This has turned Nigeria into what Oxfam called a “climate hotspot” as early as 2017.
3. Ethnic Militarization (The Fulani Factor)
Many attackers are armed Fulani herders, a historically nomadic Muslim ethnic group spread across West and Central Africa.
As grazing land disappears, herders move south—often into Christian farming communities.
These attacks are not spear-and-staff clashes.
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Militants arrive with automatic weapons
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Villagers defend themselves with machetes, bows, or nothing
Religion becomes a weaponized identity marker—a way to justify killing when resources vanish.
As the UN bluntly put it:
“The traditional conflict between farmers and herders is becoming bloodier due to climate change. Religious identity becomes a useful distinguishing feature.”
So Is This a Religious War?
Yes.
No.
And that’s the problem.
Religion is both real and instrumentalized.
Christians are disproportionately targeted in central Nigeria.
Muslims are also killed—especially those who oppose extremists.
But when churches are burned, priests abducted, and entire Christian villages erased, calling it “random violence” becomes dishonest.
The State’s Most Damning Crime: Inaction
Here is the core accusation—one that terrifies governments:
The Nigerian state may not be the perpetrator—but it is an accomplice.
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Attacks happen in remote areas with zero security presence
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Militants arrive in groups of dozens or hundreds
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No arrests
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No prosecutions
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No convictions
As Malik Samuel of Good Governance Africa asks:
“How do hundreds of armed men attack a village and simply vanish—every time?”
The answer, many fear, is not lack of resources.
It is lack of political will.
Why the United States Doesn’t Tell the Whole Truth
Enter Donald Trump.
In October, Trump declared on Truth Social:
“Christianity faces an existential crisis in Nigeria.”
He called it genocide. He threatened:
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Aid cuts
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Sanctions
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Even U.S. military intervention
Nigeria pushed back. Washington quietly softened its stance.
Days later, the U.S. announced a $2 billion health partnership with Nigeria—focused on HIV, malaria, TB, and polio, with special support for Christian health providers.
Why the sudden diplomatic pivot?
Because the truth is inconvenient.
If the U.S. officially labels this a genocide, it triggers:
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Legal obligations
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Sanctions
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Military pressure
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Diplomatic fallout across West Africa
Nigeria is:
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A regional power
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A migration buffer for Europe
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A strategic counter-terror partner
Calling genocide what it is would force action—and Washington prefers managed instability over moral clarity.
So the facts become “flexible.”
The Final Consequence No One Wants to Say Out Loud
Bishop Anagbe does.
“For people in these regions, the only remaining option is flight.”
Mass displacement.
Refugee flows.
Pressure on Europe.
Nigeria is not collapsing quietly—it is bleeding outward.
What Is Really Happening in Nigeria
Nigeria is not facing one crisis.
It is facing a convergence catastrophe:
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Climate breakdown
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Demographic explosion
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Armed extremism
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Ethnic fragmentation
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State paralysis
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International hypocrisy
Christians are not dying by accident.
Muslims are not dying by coincidence.
They are dying because the system has failed, and powerful nations find it useful to look away—or selectively frame reality.
The Question the West Refuses to Answer
If this were happening in Europe—
If churches burned weekly—
If children were abducted en masse—
Would we still debate definitions?
Or would we finally call it what it is?
yours truly,
Adaptation-Guide
