Tuesday, December 16, 2025

Dear Daily Disaster Diary, December 17 2025


“Europe is not at peace. It is simply unarmed in a war it pretends not to be fighting.”
-adaptationguide.com




Who Speaks for Europe?

No Number. No Shield. No Peace.


No time for talk. We are already at war.
Not only in Ukraine. But in words, tariffs, supply chains, algorithms, disinformation, energy, migration – and in the fight for political agency.

Henry Kissinger is often credited with asking: “Who do I call if I want to speak to Europe?”
Whether he said it exactly like that is irrelevant. The question itself is an indictment. And today it is more relevant than ever.

Europe has no phone number. No single voice. No enforceable leadership. In a world where power politics has returned, this is not idealistic – it is negligent.



Europe: A Continent Without a Command Center

The European Union was built for trade, not for toughness. For the internal market, not for existential threat. For regulation, not for rockets.

Foreign policy was an optional extra. Security was outsourced. Responsibility delegated – to the United States, to NATO, to the illusion that history was over.

That illusion died no later than February 2022.

Russia invaded. Not only Ukraine, but Europe’s sense of reality. Power politics returned. Naked. Brutal. Without footnotes.

China followed a different script, but with the same objective: dominance instead of partnership. Change through trade? A Western projection.

And America? Under Trump, no longer a protective power but a transactional actor: compliance for attention, loyalty for deals. If you are not useful, you are irrelevant.



Three Presidents, Zero Leadership

Europe has:

  • a President of the European Commission,

  • a President of the European Council,

  • a High Representative for Foreign Affairs.

And no foreign policy authority.

The High Representative may comment, but cannot decide. She is often not even at the table at G7 or G20 summits. A diplomatic fig leaf without a power base.

The presidents can set impulses – the capitals ignore them.

In the end, Berlin, Paris, and London decide. Period.

Foreign policy remains the domain of heads of government. And they do not wait for 26 others when Washington, Moscow, or Beijing calls.



Informal Power Instead of Honest Structure

So what happens? Europe improvises.

An inner circle has emerged:

  • Germany

  • France

  • the United Kingdom

Expanded by Italy, Finland, occasionally Poland, plus the NATO Secretary General, EU leadership, and selected Nordic states.

This is better than nothing. But it is democratically distorted, institutionally dirty, and strategically fragile.

Poland – a key military state – is often absent due to internal political trench warfare.
Spain – the fifth-largest economy – is effectively sidelined because it keeps its distance on security policy.

And smaller states? They get to watch – or to block.



The Veto: Europe’s Greatest Act of Self-Sabotage

Unanimity in foreign and security policy is no longer a safeguard of sovereignty.
It is an invitation to blackmail.

One or two governments – openly or covertly dependent on Moscow – can paralyze 500 million people.

That is not democracy protection. It is geopolitical suicide.

In times of war, the veto is not a right – it is a weapon. And it is being used.


Europe Is Already at War

Ukraine is not the only battlefield.

Europe is living in a permanent state of conflict:

  • trade wars

  • tariff regimes

  • information warfare

  • cyberattacks

  • energy coercion

  • migration used as a geopolitical tool

Anyone who thinks peace is merely the absence of tanks has not understood the 21st century.

Security is psychological.
500 million people need certainty that someone will decide when things burn.


The Uncomfortable Truth: Power Must Be Institutionalized

If Europe wants to be more than a market with a flag, it needs:

A Real European Security Council

Not symbolic. Not advisory. But:

  • decision-capable

  • operational

  • crisis-proof

Yes: with power asymmetry.

The largest and most militarily capable states must lead.
Medium and smaller states must co-shape – but not block.

Equality of states is a noble ideal.
Equality of responsibility is a fantasy.



Switzerland as a Model – Not an Excuse

Europe needs more direct democracy, not less.

Referendums on:

  • security architecture

  • defense spending

  • solidarity mechanisms

Not to delay, but to legitimize.

A European Security Council with clear democratic anchoring – national and European – would be stronger than any backroom format.



No More Time for Consensus Romanticism

We have no time:

  • for unanimity

  • for blockers

  • for states whose elites are courted in Moscow

Europe must be able to act – with or without them.

Those who sabotage permanently must not decide.

That is harsh. But being defenseless is harsher.



Europe’s Phone Number

Henry Kissinger was looking for a number.

Today, Europe needs more than that:

  • a voice

  • a decision structure

  • a security guarantee of its own

Not against America. Not against China. Not against Russia.

For itself.

Because a continent without a command center is no longer a peace project –
but a risk.

No time for talk.
Europe must decide.


yours truly,

Adaptation-Guide

No comments:

Post a Comment

Dear Daily Disaster Diary, December 17 2025

“Europe is not at peace. It is simply unarmed in a war it pretends not to be fighting.” -adaptationguide.com Who Speaks for Europe? No Numbe...