Dear Daily Disaster Diary, November 17 2025

 

High stakes and hopes as leaders gather ahead of COP30 | DW News

Germany’s Climate Politics — Falling Into Poverty or Abandoning the Goals

Germany set out to be the shining beacon of climate protection in the world, and for a fleeting moment it seemed possible. Tens of thousands marched in Western cities, governments trumpeted ambitious climate targets, and Greta Thunberg was crowned Person of the Year. But that era is long gone. Thunberg nowadays is more known for antisemitically-charged boat tours to Gaza, and nobody is talking about a green age anymore.

For Germany the consequences are dramatic. It gave itself the most ambitious climate goals among the powerful industrial states, simultaneously removed the means from its own hands, and now it’s trapped in a climate-policy snare.

Globally, almost every major country before the upcoming UN climate conference slammed on the brakes. The United States already pulled out of the Paris Agreement twice and rants about wind-mills and climate protection. China is expanding renewables at breathtaking speed — yes — but it is also building coal-fired plants just as fast, and its target is a mere 7-10 % reduction of greenhouse gases by 2035. Bruegel+3Baker Institute+3European Council on Foreign Relations+3 Even the European Union has weakened its own goals, now counting climate-projects in third countries as if they were its own national emissions cuts.

So who’s left? Germany — standing there as the moral guard in a world full of sinners. Unwavering, it sticks to its plan: climate-neutral by 2045 — five years ahead of all other EU nations. Meanwhile, industry is battered; de-industrialisation is in full swing. And make no mistake: no matter how it ends, the climate will barely notice Germany’s internal drama. Whether the world ends up at +2 °C, +2.5 °C or +3 °C will be decided by China, the US and India operating between themselves.

How could it come to this in Germany? One major reason: the spectacular failure of the conservative parties in climate policy. First the unions (Christian Democratic Union of Germany and Christian Social Union in Bavaria) stalled climate protection. Then, when the greens (Alliance 90/The Greens) gained momentum, they blindly adopted the greens’ political recipes. This scenario may have happened elsewhere — but nowhere did conservative parties go further than CDU/CSU in 2011: shut down perfectly functioning nuclear power plants just to steal a few votes from the Greens at the next state election. Cogitatio Press+1

By handing over the “energy transition” to the environmental-left, the Union endorsed utterly utopian projections about future energy supply. The German Institute for Economic Research calculated Germany could easily become climate-neutral just with wind and solar. In the fine print: it assumed that only electric cars would ply German streets and personal traffic would plummet by a third. That’s a massive shift in everyday life.

Add to this the climate-activists’ catastrophism: non-stop warnings of apocalypse on one side, ever more ambitious modelling on the other about how Fast we could reach the goal. The result: a stunning disconnect between ideal and reality.

CDU/CSU failed to push for a climate protection strategy that was affordable and wouldn’t eject industry from the country. A few years ago, this still might have been possible — with nuclear energy in the mix. Now the conservatives are left with rhetorical sleight-of-hand. Their leader Friedrich Merz is not to blame personally — he’s had no real political responsibility for years. In his speech in Brazil he showed that he knows what matters: public acceptance, a strong economy, openness to technology and innovation. Wikipedia

But to turn those words into action, an energy-policy revolution would be needed.
Merz would have to, for example:

• Launch a massive pro-nuclear reactor subsidy programme (so far taboo).

• Permit large-scale CO₂ storage, even in coal-plants, to get off coal.

• Consider new gas drilling domestically — all to bridge into a future of cleaner energy.

He would also need to massively increase supply of climate-friendly energy so Germany can compete globally in the AI race. With his coalition partner (the Social Democratic Party of Germany), this remains pure illusion. At the mere mention of nuclear, the SPD either giggles with fear or breaks into sweat.

So Merz has only one way out. He must tell his fellow citizens the truth. It goes like this:

Germany has a choice. It can achieve its climate-policy goals — and sink into poverty.
Or it can remain an industrial power and set less ambitious goals, in line with the majority of the world.

The Free Democratic Party (FDP) at the end of the “traffic-light” coalition demanded exactly that. The result? The end of the coalition.

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Additional Flaws & Universal-Lessons

Since you asked for more research on flaws, here are universal warnings and German-specific mistakes — usable everywhere:

• The European Green Deal is failing: despite billions in spending, results are negligible, regulatory burdens are high, and economic competitiveness is weakening. Compact+1

• Germany’s famed “Energiewende” is showing structural problems: high costs, phasing out nuclear early increased reliance on fossil fuels, stability risks in the grid, power prices rising. Wikipedia+1

• Germany’s emissions reductions so far come mostly from low-hanging fruit (industry decline, etc.), not from systemic transformation; further cuts will cost much more. Baker Institute

• Political motives overrode rational strategy: e.g., nuclear phase-out in 2011 driven more by electoral calculations than by solid policy-learning. Cogitatio Press

• Public support is still there in surveys, but trust in governments’ ability to deliver is low. Bruegel

• Voters are losing appetite as cost-of-living crisis bites, making ambitious green transitions harder to defend. Clean Energy Wire+1

• In design: assuming individual behaviour (e.g., 100 % EVs, traffic down a third) without realistic pathways is dangerous.

• Over-reliance on one technology or narrow mix (wind+solar) without backups (nuclear, storage, gas) creates risk.

• Lack of a coherent industrial strategy means the energy transition can push industry abroad, de-industrialising the country.

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Why This Is A Global Example of How Not to Do Climate Policy

• Targets without means = grand promise, empty reality. Germany set a 2045 neutrality goal but gave up vital tools (nuclear) and is now scrambling.

• No credible plan for transition. The blueprint often assumes heroic behavioural change and huge tech leaps, with no contingency.

• Ignoring economic competitiveness: high energy costs, industry exposed, jobs at risk.

• Political opportunism overrides strategy: choosing popular narratives rather than technically & economically grounded plans.

• Social acceptance neglected: When people don’t buy in because it’s too expensive or complicated, the plan collapses.

• Leadership mismatch: wrong leader at wrong time (or no leader willing to bear the un­popular costs).

• Institutional mismatch: big climate targets embedded into constitution or law (Germany did) but lacking practical instruments and funding. Euractiv

• External dependence: relying on imports or technologies from abroad undercuts national sovereignty and industrial base.

• Global irrelevance: Germany’s contribution to global emissions is small (~1.5 % globally) so the sacrifice becomes disproportionate. Baker Institute