Germany Is Not Ready for War — Or for Reality
By— Adaptation-Guide Series: Lessons from Collapse (2025 Edition)
Germany’s great cities are unprepared for real crisis. That’s not a figure of speech — it’s a warning from one of the few experts brave enough to say it out loud. Ferdinand Gehringer, a 34-year-old security policy advisor at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, has spent his career studying hybrid threats, civil defense, and the fragility of critical infrastructure.
His message is brutally simple: if Germany lost power tomorrow morning, the country would collapse within two to three days. Not because of bombs or invasion — but because of its own unpreparedness, its blind faith in the state, and its total dependence on systems that can fail overnight.
The German Illusion of Safety
For decades, Germans have lived under a soft illusion: the idea that the state will always provide, that technology will always work, and that crises are for other nations. Floods, pandemics, and wars were things you watched on TV. The postwar promise — “We’ll keep your back covered, just live your life” — turned from a comfort into a curse.
Today, the average German city dweller has enough food for less than two days. Few have emergency water. Fewer know what to do if the lights go out. In a power blackout, supermarkets close, cash registers die, water pumps stop, and suddenly, civilization feels very thin. Gehringer estimates that if Germany managed to stay calm for 72 hours, it would be a miracle.
“A large-scale power outage isn’t science fiction,” Gehringer warns. “It’s entirely plausible.”
Urban Fragility: Why Cities Will Fall First
Rural communities will endure. They have storage space, self-reliance, and often, old habits of care and exchange. Cities, by contrast, are optimized for speed, not survival. Every square meter is monetized. People live paycheck to paycheck, meal to meal. When the trucks stop rolling, the shelves go bare — fast.
Without power, the waterworks can run on backup for 48 hours, maybe less. Then the taps run dry. Emergency wells exist, but most are secret, hidden relics of the Cold War. Without coordination and communication, chaos will rise faster than water pressure falls.
Social unrest isn’t just possible — it’s inevitable. Confusion will come first, then fear, then anger. Not because Germans are weak, but because they’ve never been asked to fend for themselves.
The Hybrid War Nobody Sees
Gehringer doesn’t imagine a sudden attack. He describes a slow-motion siege — a war fought through cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation, not tanks. Small, local breakdowns — a data center outage here, a rail disruption there — pile up until recovery becomes impossible.
This is hybrid warfare: paralysis by disruption. And Germany, as NATO’s central logistics hub, would be a prime target. The question isn’t if — but when.
“The real key in any crisis,” says Gehringer, “is resilience — the ability of a society to function, both organizationally and individually, when systems fail.”
Resilience: The Lost Skill of the Modern German
“Resilience” has become a buzzword in politics and management, stripped of meaning. But its essence is simple: psychological stability, preparation, and coordination. Who picks up the kids? Who checks on the elderly neighbor? Where does the family meet if the phones are dead?
These are not heroic acts. They’re basic survival protocols. Yet most households have never asked those questions — because they’ve been told not to worry.
Germany has become a nation of consumers, not citizens. Crisis management has been outsourced to the state, logistics to corporations, and safety to technology. The result? A country where most people couldn’t boil water without electricity.
Privatized Dependence and the Myth of the Provider State
Even Germany’s critical infrastructure — power, water, food logistics — has been largely privatized. In peacetime, this makes sense. In crisis, it’s catastrophic. Private corporations are not structured for national defense. Yet in a true emergency, they become part of it — legally obliged to obey state orders, reroute resources, and prioritize defense needs.
Most Germans have no idea that in wartime or emergency law, the state can seize private property, redirect production, or even assign workers to critical sectors. It’s written in the law books. We just chose to forget.
The State of Denial
When Gehringer and cybersecurity expert Johannes Steger wrote “Germany in the Event of Emergency”, they did it because no one else wanted to talk about civilian fallout. Military strategy dominates the headlines — tanks, jets, alliances — while the home front remains an afterthought.
It’s magical thinking: If we don’t talk about it, maybe it won’t happen.
Gehringer flips the logic: If we do talk about it — maybe we’ll be ready when it does.
Lessons from Ukraine: The Power of Normalizing the Unthinkable
Ukraine’s survival under constant bombardment isn’t luck — it’s adaptation. Ordinary people learned to function amid chaos. They normalized the extraordinary. They prepared without drama. The lesson isn’t military — it’s mental.
Crisis, Gehringer says, is a productive state. It teaches people what they’re capable of. But it also exposes who was ready — and who was waiting for someone else to act.
What the First 72 Hours Will Look Like
When the lights go out, civilization doesn’t vanish instantly — it fades. The first 72 hours determine whether order survives or implodes.
Here’s what the first three days might look like in a major German city:
Hour 0–12: Confusion
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Phones and internet down.
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Traffic lights fail.
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Supermarkets close within hours.
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Panic buying starts; ATMs don’t work.
Hour 12–36: Scarcity
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Water pressure drops.
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Refrigerators warm; food spoils.
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Emergency calls flood local authorities.
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Trust begins to erode.
Hour 36–72: Breakdown or Resilience
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Water gone. Toilets stop working.
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Streetlights dark.
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Hospitals on generator power.
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People begin to organize — or riot.
Whether you survive depends on what you did before the blackout — not after.
Survival Guide: The First 72 Hours
This is not about fear. It’s about realism. If every household prepared for 10 days, the entire nation would be stronger — and calmer. Start with 72 hours, and build from there.
WATER
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Minimum: 3 liters per person per day.
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Store for 10 days if possible.
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Have purification tablets or a filter.
FOOD
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Shelf-stable, no-cook options: canned beans, nuts, protein bars, dried fruit, rice, pasta, powdered milk.
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Don’t forget manual can opener.
HEAT & LIGHT
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Candles, LED lanterns, battery or hand-crank flashlight.
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Sleeping bags or emergency blankets.
POWER
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Power bank for phone (charged).
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Battery-powered or crank radio for emergency info.
MEDICAL
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Basic first-aid kit.
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Stock prescription meds for 10 days.
COMMUNICATION & PLANNING
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Write down emergency contacts (don’t rely on phones).
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Pre-decide a meeting point for family/friends.
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Agree who checks on whom.
HYGIENE
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Wet wipes, soap, garbage bags, toilet paper.
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Bucket toilet if plumbing fails.
MINDSET
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Don’t panic.
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Check on neighbors.
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Conserve energy, water, and trust.
Preparedness is not paranoia. It’s responsibility.
Final Warning: The Luxury of Denial Is Over
Germany is still living in the comfort of denial — the belief that order is eternal and systems can’t fail. But as Ferdinand Gehringer reminds us, crisis doesn’t start with an explosion. It begins quietly — with a blackout, a broken supply chain, or a flood of disinformation.
By the time you notice, it’s already too late to prepare.
If Ukraine has taught Europe anything, it’s this: resilience is not built by governments. It’s built by citizens — one family, one neighborhood, one decision at a time.
Resilience starts when you stop asking “Who will save us?”
and start asking “What can I do?”
yours truly,
Adaptation-Guide
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